Three Unorthodox Recession Indicators and Their Applicability to the German Economy

Article by Zsófia Hajnalon the Institute of World Economics’ blog

Complaints on stagnation and recessionary impacts have constantly accompanied recent discussion and debate about Germany’s economy, both in its segments and various industries. More often than not, traditional indicators (which have recently turned out to be even gloomier than previously thought) have reflected these worries. The state of Germany’s economy is decisive of near future trends for several industries in the European Union, with networks such as the automotive and pharmaceutical being in the focus of economic monitoring. Events and decisions within the broader German economic sphere, be they positive or negative in terms on the consequences to bear, ripple through the European value chains, as well as the financial web, with Hungary – through trade and industrial links – being a prime example of the countries impacted.

Whilst the broader geopolitical and technological contexts hold several hypotheses and clues that are more straightforward on the reasons for such economic trends, it might be worth taking a brief look at the accompanying phenomena on the micro-level as well. Traditional indicators remain of primary consideration when it comes to evaluation and prognosis, however, some unconventional indicators in the realm of consumption habits might signal in advance, or confirm economic states and their changes too…