Comparative Analysis of Leading Sectors in Bulgaria, Hungary and Romania

Author: Tamás Tibor Csontos

In: Global Economic Observer, 2(11), 22-30.

Abstract

The Coronavirus pandemic marked the end of an era in the catching-up process of East-Central Europe. A thorough evaluation of the growth model of the last decade is therefore needed in order to draw lessons for future industrial policy. The aim of this article is to provide a comparative analysis of the Bulgarian, Hungarian and Romanian growth models based on the examination of leading sectors. The paper compares the five leading sectors of the three countries in the period 2011-2018. The five leading industries are defined in terms of their contribution to gross value-added growth. The paper also examines foreign dependence and labour productivity growth in the leading sectors, the latter also being key to analysing the possibility of a middle-income trap. The results show a different sectoral specialisation in the three countries. The foreign dominance is higher in Hungary and Romania. Moreover, Romania is the best performer in terms of labour productivity.

Keywords: growth models, leading sectors, catching-up, middle-income trap, dependency, industrial policy