Szerző: Deák András

In: Biró Dávid, Egeresi Zoltán (eds.): Connectivity in a changing world: Turkic States and the middle corridor. Budapest: Türk Államok Szervezete Magyarországi Képviseleti Iroda, 2025. pp. 79-100.

Absztrakt

The EU’s Russian fossil fuel exit has changed the context of Central  Asian energy exports considerably. Before Russia’s renewed aggression against Ukraine in February 2022, Russia’s hydrocarbons provided roughly 40% of Europe’s demand. Three years later, Russian exports have retreated only to a handful of countries within the EU, holding only small margins in their former market. According to Eurostat, the share of Russia in direct EU energy imports was 5.4% in 2023, falling from 29.3% in 2019. One might think that disappearing Russian exports have been opening up a huge market for alternatives, among others, Central Asian suppliers. In reality, energy warfare between the European Union and Russia raises various infrastructural, market, and notional barriers before Kazakh, Azerbaijani, and potential Turkmen exporters. These new constraints increase already existing uncertainty regarding the future of EU fossil markets and may deteriorate its business attractiveness in the eyes of Central Asian producers.

The paper provides an early analysis of major change factors relevant to the Central Asia-EU energy bridge. Understandably, we focus  on fossil fuel markets, primarily oil and gas, and skip prospective segments, such as minor or rare minerals and renewable energy. In the first section, we provide an overview of relations prior to 2022 and the shifts after the war restarted. We discuss the problems of Kazakh oil  transit through Russia, the potential of Azerbaijani oil and gas exports, and their future conditions. In the second part of the paper, we try to outline the dynamics between the EU’s Russia fossil fuel exit and its decarbonization agenda—two contradictory drivers, offering only a limited and shrinking rationale for major investments in European exports in Central Asia.

A Deák, A.: Is the EU’s exit from Russian fossil fuels an opportunity, a threat, or a nuance for Central Asian energy exporters? bejegyzés először VGI-én jelent meg.

Szerző: Szigetvári Tamás

In: Biró Dávid, Egeresi Zoltán (eds.): Connectivity in a changing world: Turkic States and the middle corridor. Budapest: Türk Államok Szervezete Magyarországi Képviseleti Iroda, 2025. pp. 79-100.

Absztrakt

The strategic position and importance of the Central Asian region have increased significantly in the recent period. The economic rise and success of the countries of the Far East, but especially China, has increased the strategic and economic value of the neighboring areas. Especially those that are rich in raw materials and mineral resources. Most of the Central Asian countries are also in a good position in this regard, as they are extremely rich in crude oil and natural gas, but also in metals and other mineral resources.

However, a big question is how these countries are connected to the changing economic world order. Are they able to improve their position by strengthening cooperation with each other, and exploit new opportunities under more favorable conditions, asserting their own interests better.

The organization of Turkic countries, as an important instrument to achieve these goals, was established in Nakhchivan (Azerbaijan)  on 3 October 2009 as the Cooperation Council of the Turkic Speaking States (Turkic Council). The original Agreement was signed by  Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Türkiye, while Uzbekistan  joined the Organisation in 2019. Hungary (2018), Turkmenistan 2021) and Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (2022) (recognized only by  ürkiye as a state) have an observer statusin the Organisation of Turkic States (OTS).

In the first part of our study, we review the economic structure and potential of the Turkic States based on UN data, what their current foreign trade structure is like, and who their main trade partners are. After that, we will examine the possibilities of closer economic relations with each other, as well as the limitations.

A Szigetvári, T.: Economic cooperation and trade development among Turkic States: opportunities and barriers. bejegyzés először VGI-én jelent meg.