Authors: Agnieszka Głodowska, Agnieszka Hajdukiewicz, Bożena Pera, Csaba Weiner

In: The World Economy, Early View, (2026) 1–18.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/TWEC.70110

Absztrakt

This article examines the impact of the European Union’s post-March 2014 and post-February 2022 sanctions episodes against Russia on trade between Russia and the Visegrad countries (Czechia, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia) over 2013–2024. Changes are analysed at both the aggregate level and—based on an original identification of EU sanction coverage—across selected sanctioned product chapters and non-sanctioned reference groups. The empirical framework combines descriptive statistics on the distribution of the selected product groups with two complementary econometric approaches: a gravity-based Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood model (PPML) with fixed effects, estimated in a difference-in-differences design relative to control markets, and a PPML interrupted time-series model used as a robustness check to identify structural breaks and post-intervention trends. Empirically, the effects of EU sanctions on Visegrad exports to Russia were strongly negative already under the post-March 2014 sanctions regime, particularly for highly sanctioned manufactured product groups such as machinery and electrical equipment, and intensified further following the substantial expansion of sanctions after February 2022. Import effects were initially weaker but intensified markedly from 2022 onward, most notably for energy sources. The findings point to episode-specific trade responses, pronounced heterogeneity across product groups, and a clear asymmetry between export and import adjustments.

A Głodowska, A., Hajdukiewicz, A., Pera, B., & Weiner, C.: Trade Effects of EU Sanctions against Russia: Evidence from the Visegrad Group bejegyzés először VGI-én jelent meg.

Authors: John Szabo, Csaba Weiner, András Deák

In: Post-Communist Economies, 2026, 1–28.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/14631377.2025.2607994

Abstract

The European Commission proposed to accelerate the EU’s energy transition and phase out Russian gas in response to Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine, prompting different reactions from Central and Eastern European Member States. This paper explores the responses from these countries by tracing the institution-altering effects of politicisation and securitisation. It proposes a taxonomy based on state actions: ‘accelerationists’ align with the Commission’s ambition to hasten the green transition and reduce the role of Russian natural gas; ‘pivoters’ acknowledge the security threat and have eliminated Russian imports but seek to retain natural gas as a transition fuel by turning to alternative suppliers; and ‘the unwavering’ do not securitise the issue and thus resist change. The paper draws on the comparison of original National Energy and Climate Plans published in 2019 and their post-invasion updates to explore how the energy transition interacts with external shocks.

A Szabo, J., Weiner, C., Deák, A.: Split between accelerationists, pivoters, and the unwavering: CEE energy policy responses to Russia’s 2022 invasion bejegyzés először VGI-én jelent meg.

Authors: Ágnes Szunomár, Tamás Peragovics, Csaba Weiner

In: Politics in Central Europe, 20(2), 271-301.

Abstract

International business research is usually focused on various aspects of foreign direct investment (FDI) by non‑European emerging‑market multinational enterprises (EMNEs) without attention to non‑traditional factors pulling them into host countries. The objective of this paper is to examine the investments of EMNEs from two source countries, China and Russia, within the Visegrad Four (V4) economies. Based on interviews and a qualitative document analysis, it explores the main characteristics of their investments into the V4, including host‑country determinants by focusing on macroeconomic, institutional and political factors. The paper finds that these factors do influence EMNEs’ investment practices, and that they correlate with the changing quality of political relations, but this influence needs to be assessed on a case‑by‑case basis.

A Szunomár, Á., Peragovics, T., Weiner, Cs.: The role of institutional and political factors in attracting Chinese and Russian multinationals to the Visegrad countries bejegyzés először VGI-én jelent meg.