Authors: Agnieszka Głodowska, Agnieszka Hajdukiewicz, Bożena Pera, Csaba Weiner

In: The World Economy, Early View, (2026) 1–18.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/TWEC.70110

Absztrakt

This article examines the impact of the European Union’s post-March 2014 and post-February 2022 sanctions episodes against Russia on trade between Russia and the Visegrad countries (Czechia, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia) over 2013–2024. Changes are analysed at both the aggregate level and—based on an original identification of EU sanction coverage—across selected sanctioned product chapters and non-sanctioned reference groups. The empirical framework combines descriptive statistics on the distribution of the selected product groups with two complementary econometric approaches: a gravity-based Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood model (PPML) with fixed effects, estimated in a difference-in-differences design relative to control markets, and a PPML interrupted time-series model used as a robustness check to identify structural breaks and post-intervention trends. Empirically, the effects of EU sanctions on Visegrad exports to Russia were strongly negative already under the post-March 2014 sanctions regime, particularly for highly sanctioned manufactured product groups such as machinery and electrical equipment, and intensified further following the substantial expansion of sanctions after February 2022. Import effects were initially weaker but intensified markedly from 2022 onward, most notably for energy sources. The findings point to episode-specific trade responses, pronounced heterogeneity across product groups, and a clear asymmetry between export and import adjustments.

A Głodowska, A., Hajdukiewicz, A., Pera, B., & Weiner, C.: Trade Effects of EU Sanctions against Russia: Evidence from the Visegrad Group bejegyzés először VGI-én jelent meg.

Authors: John Szabo, Csaba Weiner, András Deák

In: Post-Communist Economies, 2026, 1–28.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/14631377.2025.2607994

Abstract

The European Commission proposed to accelerate the EU’s energy transition and phase out Russian gas in response to Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine, prompting different reactions from Central and Eastern European Member States. This paper explores the responses from these countries by tracing the institution-altering effects of politicisation and securitisation. It proposes a taxonomy based on state actions: ‘accelerationists’ align with the Commission’s ambition to hasten the green transition and reduce the role of Russian natural gas; ‘pivoters’ acknowledge the security threat and have eliminated Russian imports but seek to retain natural gas as a transition fuel by turning to alternative suppliers; and ‘the unwavering’ do not securitise the issue and thus resist change. The paper draws on the comparison of original National Energy and Climate Plans published in 2019 and their post-invasion updates to explore how the energy transition interacts with external shocks.

A Szabo, J., Weiner, C., Deák, A.: Split between accelerationists, pivoters, and the unwavering: CEE energy policy responses to Russia’s 2022 invasion bejegyzés először VGI-én jelent meg.

Author: Csaba Weiner

In: Ikonomicheski Izsledvania 33(8), 167-189.

Abstract

This paper examines demand- and supply-side developments in Hungary’s natural gas market before and after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the government’s interventions in the sector from February 2022, and the consistency of these measures with the country’s pre-war energy strategies and policies.

A Weiner, Cs.: Hungarian gas market trends in a risky and unpredictable environment: A comparison of the situation before and after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine bejegyzés először VGI-én jelent meg.

Abstract

A Deák, A., Szabo, J., Weiner, Cs.: Russia’s gas weapon in Central and Eastern Europe: Diverging responses from three friendly states bejegyzés először VGI-én jelent meg.

Authors: Csaba Weiner, Péter Kotek, Borbála Takácsné Tóth

In: Journal of Contemporary European Studies, 31 Jul 2024

DOI: 10.1080/14782804.2024.2385978

Abstract

The Eastern enlargements of the EU increased the bloc’s dependency on Russian gas and contributed to a more cautious attitude towards these supplies. This paper assesses the Russian gas dependency of the 11 Central and East European new member states according to the ambition and execution of their national energy strategies and compares it to the gas dependency shifts in the old member states. Two composite indicators of gas dependency – one for supply and one for demand – based on nine individual indicators were used for this evaluation, calculated for 2004, 2019, and 2022. We find that the new member states mostly reduced gas dependency through supply-side measures, while old member states increased dependency through some combination of worsening supply- or demand-side situations until Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The behaviour of member states was influenced by different perceptions of vulnerability and a varying sense of threat in the pre-war period. The old member states did not perceive their Russian gas dependency as a significant risk, whereas the new member states viewed this as a high-risk factor. New gas infrastructure capacity has contributed to diversification from Russia, but reducing gas demand did not receive much attention before the invasion.

A Weiner, Cs., Kotek, P., Takácsné Tóth, B.: Two decades of changing dependency on Russian gas in Central and Eastern Europe: strategies versus achievements bejegyzés először VGI-én jelent meg.